they're no longer kidding themselves ... that they can realistically "profit" from this.

If you want to profit, build colossal, complex refineries that can handle the heaviest, most sour crude.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/27/oil-refineries-close-uk-europe-essar-energy

"There is some sort of structural change in the refining industry globally," said Nayyar. "Refineries that were small-sized or low-complexity are being replaced by large, complex refineries mostly built in the Asia-Pacific region … Those refineries that are not economically sustainable or of low complexity will find it much harder to survive in this market."

The thing about building a refinery, is most countries have lots of fees and fines and inspections so its a huge legal hassle. There's also the bribes to senators/parliament depending on nation involved. The reason the USA exports gasoline is some of the nations we buy oil from don't have their own refineries and this gets us some exchange advantages. The other big problem with refineries is that the stainless steel used in the pipes, the only real option mind you, corrodes in the presence of the Sulfuric Acid that results from separating out the Sulfur from the Heavy Sour Crude they're selling these days. It costs more, its more dangerous, its more prone to leaking out and causing deadly accidents, so nobody wants a refinery running the stuff nearby, and nobody wants to deal with the hassles if they can possibly avoid it.

And that still leaves the refiners at the mercy of both OPEC and Iran for their supply sources. Oil is very unstable, and supplies could easily be cut off if say, the next USA president withdraws troops and ships from the region due to budget cuts or a crash in the dollar's value. That's very likely, and the reason why NATO and the EU are uninvolved in Syria's massacres despite having irritated both sides in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia last year. The EU is out of money. They've got bigger problems than oil supply.

Maybe you can feasibly argue that the rewards of having a refinery in this market are worth the costs... but I think few would try. The margins are too small to justify the risks.