January 10th, 2016


2016 Predictions

My predictions from last year seem to have been about right on. Of course, "less pessimistic than JHK" seems to be easy money.
  • "Sustained low [oil] prices": Check, in spades.
  • While immigration will continue to be a contentious political issue, there won't be 'open ethnic warfare' in 'France, Britain, the Netherlands, Sweden', nor will the level of violent racial conflict in the US return to the levels of the 1960s or 1970s": Check, though there were certainly more active attempts at provoking that level of conflict than I would like.
  • "No huge constitutional crisis [in the US], either. Dysfunction and gridlock will continue to be the political order of the day": Double-check.
  • "the Russia/Ukraine situation[...] probably won't lead to the outbreak of a world war next year": Check, and that "probably" was just exaggerating for humor... I hope.
Per tradition, Kunstler once again has an annual prediction post that goes for exaggerated overconfidence on even more pessimism. His stock market prognostications (~50% decline by June) seem wildly outlandish in their intentionally-entertaining specificity. But oil below $30 is entirely possible; that prediction is quite close to being right already. Kunstler's predictions on the political front are more interesting (stuff about race relations in the US aside), though I don't think that a Trump presidency would be as exiting as Kunstler predicts (or that the Republicans will get a dark-horse candidate to save them from another Clinton presidency).

John Michael Greer's predictions continue to be much more level-headed. Those more or less match my predictions: Things that are getting worse will continue to get gradually worse (but in ways that might not be so dramatic or sudden), financial bubbles will pop eventually, but you can't predict exactly when. Tech bubble popping in 2016, maybe. New bubble in photovoltaics, no idea. Trump presidency, maybe, but I'd bet against. Saudi Regime falls in 2016... well, I'd be willing to be on eventually, but don't know about this year specifically. Read the whole thing, though, it's interesting.

Seems the general trend is that 2016 is predicted to be like 2015, but more so.

What are your favorite prognostication posts this year? What are your most interesting predictions for 2016?